Small Talk Monday

            A little quantitative reasoning to start the week.

            The UEFA organization is convoluted enough for it to require a little clarification: there are nine groups (A to I), six groups of eight (A to F), three of five (G to I); the first of each group along with the best second (in points) are automatically qualified; the eight remaining seconds go through a two-legged tie decided with a random draw, the victors join the qualified and hosts (Ukraine and Poland). In total 16 teams will participate in the final tournament.*

This week sees the last the game of the qualifying round for the Euro 2012 take place, a perfect occasion to recap the situation in the various groups.

            Those already qualified: Germany (A), Italy (C), the Netherlands (E), England (G) and Spain (I). As usual, the big names, with notably England not missing out as they did four years ago.

            Those assured of a second spot: only Montenegro (G)! Constant good performances and most of all an important victory against Switzerland assured Vucinic’s team a shot at the two-legged tie.

The “little final”: France-Bosnia (D), both far ahead of third placed Romania, France and Bosnia will go head to head in a game of who will be directly qualified and who will go on to the two-legged tie. France can do with a draw, Bosnia need a win.

            The “distance final”: the most common case where the final standings, either for first or second place, depend on the last fixture where competing teams face different opponents. A Mathematician’s joy.

In group F both Greece and Croatia, both assured of finishing at least second, will fight for the top spot. Greece will travel to Georgia, where a victory would assure it to keep its first place spot whilst Croatia receive Latvia waiting for Greece’s misstep.
            In Group A Turkey and Belgium fight for the second spot at distance. Belgium, one point ahead of Turkey, travels to Germany in the hope of obtaining a historic win (or draw) that would send them to the tie-breaker, whilst Turkey receive Azerbaijan for an almost guaranteed victory that would make them overtake a supposedly defeated Belgium. If Belgium draw, Turkey would need to win by at least seven to take second place.

Yet another case in group E where Sweden and Hungary battle for second place. Sweden travels to Holland where an upset combined with a Hungarian victory at home against Finland would see the Swedes drop out of the race for Euro 2012.
            The final case is in group I where Scotland will travel to Spain in order to retain their second spot, one point ahead of the Czech Republic who travels to Lithuania. The overtake seems here inevitable as only a Scottish win would assure them of the second spot, or a counter-performance of the Czechs in Lithuania.

The ménage à trois: the tastiest of cases where three teams could end up at any of the two first spots.

In group B, this concerns Russia, Ireland and Armenia (in this order in the current standings). If Russia is almost assured of winning against Andorra, Ireland and Armenia face off for a supposed second spot. Yet if Russia were to loose, then either could have a shot at first spot with a victory, with Russia ending up second.

The waiting game: In group C, Estonia will have to watch Serbia’s game in order to see whether it can maintain its second position, one point ahead of the Serbs. Serbia needs a draw or a win in Slovenia in order to take second place behind Italy. Do they have pay-per-view in Estonia?
           

The “Can it really happen?”: In Group H, the situation is even better: Portugal and Denmark lead the group with 16 points each. Portugal is currently ahead thanks to its better goal difference (+10 vs. +8). Both teams face off in a “little final” with a particular taste, as Norway is just three points behind going in their game against Cyprus. With a win, Norway would be at equal points than the looser of Portugal-Denmark and with a win by at least 8 would overtake Denmark, if the Danes lost, or 10 would overtake Portugal if they lost. In this case the looser of Portugal-Denmark would not even access the two-legged tie. Bets on Portugal-Denmark ending in a very uneventful and convenient draw or bets on a victory of one of them combined with a Norway thrashing of Cyprus?

           

            *In case of a tie, whether for the first, second, or best second positions, the difference will be made on the goal difference. If that also reveals itself equal between two team, the particular result of the confrontations between these two would settle the matter. If those also result in a tie, well go ask the South African soccer federation, they’re dealing with the matter as I write trying to gain a spot for the 2012 African Cup.